hey guys so if you're a beginner trader I'm sure you've read
at least one trading guru that tells you about how great the mac indicator is
all these guru does is tell you all about the strategies that you can implement
in the macd indicator but have you ever watched a full 30-minute training
video and walk out still not knowing crap but because you just watched along
video your brain kind of tricks you into thinking that you actually learned
something and you thought you did something productive with those 30 minutes
but in reality, you had no idea what the guy just said yeah that's called some
cost fallacy and it's bad but don't worry we've all been there so instead of
bull crapping about how great the macd indicator is I'm just going to reveal to
you the approximate win rate of the indicator so you don't have to waste your
precious time and money testing it yourself
let me do all that for you so first there are two methods
that I'm gonna be testing with the macd indicator so the first method is I'm
gonna call it the normal method which is just your normal way of using the macd
the second is I'm gonna call it the new method this method still uses the macd
indicator but in a very different way some say that this second method actually
gives a higher win rate let's see so let me give a quick explanation just in
case some of you don't know how the macd works there are four components in the
macd this blue line is called the macd line this line moves faster and is more
sensitive to price action which will be the main focus of the macd indicator
this orange line is called the signal line this line reacts slower to price
changes and is used to show the direction of a trendless sensitive it is
mainly used to filter out market noises next
we have the macd histogram it simply represents the
difference between the signal line and the macd line you can see that if the
two lines are further apart the histogram gets longer and if the two lines are
closer the histogram gets shorter next we have the baseline which just shows
the middle area of the mat the indicator when the two lines are above the
baseline it indicates a bullish sentiment meaning that the market is uptrending
and when it is below the baseline it indicates a bearish momentum or a
downtrend so now that you know the parts of the macd I'm gonna explain to you
how you use the macd like I said in the start of the video there are two
methods that I'm gonna backtest so the first method is called
the normal method is simply how most people use the
macd indicator so quick summary there are two lines it can be either above or
below the baseline, if the two lines are below the baseline and the macd line
crosses above the signal line you go long and if the two lines are above the
baseline and it crosses below the signal line you go short pretty simple now
for the new method, this is a different way of utilizing the macd the lines can
be either above or below the baseline if the lines are below the baseline you
wait for it to cross downwards again then you take a short position so after
the lines crosses upwards wait for it to cross downwards again while still
being below the baseline that's when you take your short position it's the same
example with the long position when the lines are above the baseline and it
crosses upwards again while still being above the baseline you take along
position for the normal method it focuses on spotting reversals as the lines
are below the baseline when you go long
however, the new method focuses on trend continuations as you
enter a long position when the lines are already above the baseline for my exit
strategy since we are solely testing the macd indicator that means I will also
use the macd indicator as my exit strategy my exit strategy would be the same
for those two methods every time the macd line and the signal line crosses over
I exit my trade it doesn't matter if it's above or below the baseline if it
crosses over at any point I close the trade there are a couple of rules that i
use when backtesting an indicator the first rule is measuring at a candle's
close
what do I mean by this well indicators collects data from
the candle itself so if the candle is still moving the indicator would also be
moving that is why it is important to start measuring from a candle's close For example here we have a chart let's say I'm testing the normal method so I'll
start measuring here because it's a green candle so the close is in the top
part of the body so I'll start here and let's say just an example that our exit
signal is here and it happens to be a red candle a red candle closes at the
bottom of the candle's body so the measurement would be from this point to this
point the next rule is that if my entry signal appears immediately after my
exit signal I'm going to enter at the next candle so what do I mean by this
because our exit strategy is waiting for the macd to cross over there are often
times where the macd displays an entry signal right after it displays an exit
signal as shown here so if this
happens I'll start measuring at the next candle's close I'm
gonna be using the euro USD 15 minute chart for this backtest so here's an
excel sheet that I created to record this backtest here I can insert how much
wins and loss I already got and it would automatically calculate the win rate
so I'll consider it a win if I make a profit it does not matter how much pips i
got if I got a profit I'll consider it a win however if I get a loss or a break
even I'm counting it as a loss this backtest i'm going to start with a capital
of ten thousand dollars and every trade, i'm using 150 times leverage but I'm
only trading with one percent of my capital per trade so that I would not blow
up my account, this means that I would only risk one percent of my capital per
trade this excel sheet also automatically counts your new capital after you
trade so for example
let's say I got three pips from trade so I'll enter it
here and it'll automatically calculate how much profit you got what's your new
capital and what is your new trading budget because like I said i'll only risk
one percent of my capital per trade so this automatically calculates one
percent from my new capital bear in mind that these results are just an
approximate win rate because you can't determine the exact win rate of the
strategy by only testing it 100 times so after backtesting these two types of
macd indicators 100 times here are the results so for the normal method we have
a 42 win rate with 42 wins and 58 losses but even though the win rate is less
than 50 we still managed to come out profitable we made a total of ten dollars
and thirteen cents or nine pips from our ten thousand dollars investment now
remember that we didn't manage our losses and had a proper exit strategy so if
we had used proper risk management and a good exit strategy
I'm pretty sure we
would come out more profitable we actually made 343 dollars at some point our
biggest single trade win was 115 dollars and 42 cents which were about 57 pips
however, our biggest one trade loss was 156 or 77 pips like I said had I used
the correct exit plan and proper risk management I could have avoided that
huge loss and exited that trade earlier for the new macd method the second macd
strategy had a whopping 23 win rate which is very far compared to the normal
method with 42 we lost a total of 75 cents which is about 46 pips using this
indicator at some point we reached a profit of 138 and 33 cents our biggest one
trade profit was 59 and our biggest one trade loss was only 42 dollars unlike
the normal method where most losses comes from huge one trade losses this
indicator's losses mostly comes from small yet continuous losses so i think
even though if we use the tight stop loss and
the correct money management the results wouldn't be any
better either because the odds are simply against us the concept of the new
method kinda makes sense as it tries to capture continuation trends instead of
reversals yet the normal method does a much better job of detecting continuation
trends while giving a good entry because in my opinion, the new method tries so
hard to capture continuation trends meaning that the trend had already happened
it also displays a late signal and it's not even a good entry overall I think
the macd does a really good job of spotting early trends of course trends on
the market does not always happen sometimes the market is stagnant but the macd
rarely gives false signals for entry especially when you combine it with a good
exit indicator if you want me to backtest multiple indicators comment which
indicators you want me to backtest below and remember the most important factor
to determine your success is always money management because trading is just a
probability game and finding which indicators have the highest probability would
give you an edge and if you pair that up with good money management you will
succeed at trading.